Edgewise shows Ethena traders the odds: where the week and the day are likely to close, and the chance price reaches each level. We checked those numbers on Ethena data the model was never fitted on, October 2025 to September 2026.
WEEKLY RANGE
Switched off for Ethena
In testing the weekly 80% range held 88% of the time for Ethena (154 readings). That is wider than an 80% range should be: it held more often than it claimed, so the app does not draw it for Ethena until it is fixed.
DAILY RANGE
The 80% range held 83% of the time
The same range, drawn for each day. 1,089 readings.
LEVEL ODDS
Within 1.0 points of what happened
Next to each price level the app shows the chance price reaches it. Across 2,408 readings for Ethena, those odds were on average within 1.0 percentage points of how often it actually happened. For a level one day's range away, the odds said 11% and it happened 11% of the time (724 cases).
The ranges and level odds are on the chart, for Ethena and 34 more coins.
Start freeEvery figure on this page comes from Edgewise's own clearance test: the models were checked once on October 2025 to September 2026, data they were never fitted on. A coin goes live in the app only if the ranges and level odds on this page pass. These are measured frequencies, not promises: an 80% range still misses about one time in five. Not financial advice.