We tested the golden cross the way it is usually traded, then compared it with random entries on the same crypto coins, taken at times when the market was just as jumpy. Here is what happened.
Most time limits have too few trades to settle it either way. Where one looked different from random, it did not hold up in all six setups, so it does not count. We have not shown it fails, and there are too few of these signals in the data for anyone to show that it works.
The 50-day exponential moving average crosses above the 200-day simple moving average. Traded long.
| Time limit | Result | Differed from random in (needs all 6) | Trades | Hit target: signal | Hit target: random | Hit time limit: signal | Avg result (ATR): signal | Avg result (ATR): random | Smallest gap we could detect (lower is better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | Mixed, so not counted | 2 of 6 | 63 | 0.0% | 0.3% | 95.2% | -0.22 | +0.05 | 0.23 |
| 5 days | Not enough data | 0 of 6 | 61 | 3.3% | 4.8% | 75.4% | -0.20 | +0.12 | 0.53 |
| 10 days | Not enough data | 0 of 6 | 59 | 10.2% | 11.5% | 57.6% | +0.04 | +0.15 | 0.73 |
| 20 days | Not enough data | 0 of 6 | 57 | 24.6% | 22.5% | 31.6% | +0.24 | +0.29 | 0.92 |
With a 1-day time limit the result differed from random in 2 of the six setups, all on the losing side. A result has to hold up in all six, so it is not counted.
ATR (average true range) is how far a coin typically moves in a day, averaged over 14 days. A result of +4 means the trade made four typical days’ moves. Hit target counts trades that reached the target before the stop. Trades that hit the time limit count as not hitting, which is why the one-day rates are so low. Avg result is in ATR: a target is +4, a stop is −2, and a trade that hit the time limit is whatever the close gave. Smallest gap we could detect is how big a real difference from random would have to be, in ATR per trade, before this test would reliably catch it. Lower means a sharper test. Above 0.30 there were too few trades to judge, so the row says “Not enough data”. It is not counted as a fail.
If this is not how you trade the golden cross, tell us how you do — on X at @Edgewise_to — and we will run your version through the same test. Every other signal is on the Measured page, and everything we have checked, including results that went against us, is on Verdicts.
Edgewise shows honest probabilities for live markets and publishes a graded forward record of the direction engine behind them — its next-candle probabilities, which the app itself does not print — misses included. Testing popular signals is the same habit, pointed outward.
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