We tested the 20/50 EMA bullish cross the way it is usually traded, then compared it with random entries on the same crypto coins, taken at times when the market was just as jumpy. Here is what happened.
Where the signal fired often enough to judge, it did no better than random entries. The other time limits have too few trades to say either way.
The 20-day exponential moving average crosses above the 50-day. Traded long.
| Time limit | Result | Differed from random in (needs all 6) | Trades | Hit target: signal | Hit target: random | Hit time limit: signal | Avg result (ATR): signal | Avg result (ATR): random | Smallest gap we could detect (lower is better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 day | No better than random | 0 of 6 | 185 | 0.5% | 0.3% | 97.8% | +0.15 | -0.00 | 0.18 |
| 5 days | Not enough data | 0 of 6 | 184 | 8.7% | 5.5% | 76.1% | +0.32 | +0.09 | 0.35 |
| 10 days | Not enough data | 0 of 6 | 174 | 17.2% | 13.6% | 48.3% | +0.28 | +0.11 | 0.44 |
| 20 days | Not enough data | 0 of 6 | 165 | 26.7% | 23.3% | 24.2% | +0.17 | +0.02 | 0.53 |
ATR (average true range) is how far a coin typically moves in a day, averaged over 14 days. A result of +4 means the trade made four typical days’ moves. Hit target counts trades that reached the target before the stop. Trades that hit the time limit count as not hitting, which is why the one-day rates are so low. Avg result is in ATR: a target is +4, a stop is −2, and a trade that hit the time limit is whatever the close gave. Smallest gap we could detect is how big a real difference from random would have to be, in ATR per trade, before this test would reliably catch it. Lower means a sharper test. Above 0.30 there were too few trades to judge, so the row says “Not enough data”. It is not counted as a fail.
If this is not how you trade the 20/50 EMA bullish cross, tell us how you do — on X at @Edgewise_to — and we will run your version through the same test. Every other signal is on the Measured page, and everything we have checked, including results that went against us, is on Verdicts.
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