under 3% chance Ethereum trades $5,000 before today's 00:00 UTC close. It was at $2,568 when these odds were computed, so it would have to rise 94.7% first.
Computed at 16:12 UTC, 07 Oct 2026.
$2,375 to $2,756
The 80% range for where Ethereum closes this week. It held 87% of the time, read 154 times across weeks it was never fitted on.
This page answers for today's 00:00 UTC close because that is the horizon these odds were proven on: on data the model never saw, Ethereum's odds landed within 1.7 points of how often prices really got there, on average. Longer horizons are not proven yet, and nothing here supports a figure for this year, so the page gives none.
Below 3% the odds cannot tell one long shot from another, so they read "under 3%".
The chart shows every key level for Ethereum with its chance of being reached today. How Ethereum's odds measured up.
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