under 3% chance Bitcoin trades $500,000 before today's 00:00 UTC close. It was at $83,500 when these odds were computed, so it would have to rise 498.8% first.
Computed at 16:12 UTC, 07 Oct 2026.
$79,458 to $87,116
The 80% range for where Bitcoin closes this week. It held 84% of the time, read 154 times across weeks it was never fitted on.
This page answers for today's 00:00 UTC close because that is the horizon these odds were proven on: on data the model never saw, Bitcoin's odds landed within 0.7 points of how often prices really got there, on average. Longer horizons are not proven yet, and nothing here supports a figure for this year, so the page gives none.
Below 3% the odds cannot tell one long shot from another, so they read "under 3%".
The chart shows every key level for Bitcoin with its chance of being reached today. How Bitcoin's odds measured up.
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